Apparel & textiles (cotton-first)

• Compliance risk in China’s cotton is uniquely high. Under the U.S. UFLPA, any goods made wholly or partly in Xinjiang—or by entities on the UFLPA list—are presumed to use forced labor and are barred from import unless rebutted with clear evidence. Detentions have broadened beyond apparel in 2024–25, increasing scrutiny on cotton supply chains.
  
• China’s cotton = Xinjiang. Roughly 95% of China’s cotton is grown in Xinjiang, so even multi-province supply chains risk entanglement.
  
• India gives cotton-at-source plus scale. India remains one of the world’s top producers (≈21% of global output in 2024/25), enabling fully traceable cotton programs that avoid Xinjiang exposure. The Tiruppur cluster alone accounts for ~90% of India’s cotton knitwear exports and contributes ₹34,350 crore (2022–23).
  Takeaway: For cotton apparel, moving China→India materially lowers UFLPA risk while keeping costs competitive due to local fiber and dense knitwear clusters.
  

Man-made fibers / athleisure

• Global buyers are shifting MMF programs to India to diversify. Tiruppur is pushing MMF’s share from ~10% toward 30% by 2030 to serve sportswear/athleisure, backed by state initiatives.
  Takeaway: If you’re moving synthetics out of China, India’s MMF capacity is expanding rapidly; plan for structured vendor development and yarn/fabric locking.
  

Leather goods & footwear

• Scale & capability. India is the #2 global footwear producer and a major exporter of leather goods; the sector exported US$5.7B in FY2024–25 (≈+25% YoY per CLE).
  
• Category breadth. Finished leather, bags/small leather goods, stitched uppers, and non-leather footwear now represent ~53% of leather/footwear export value.
  Takeaway: For handbags, wallets, belts, boots/sneakers (leather & non-leather), India offers mature clusters (Kanpur, Chennai, Agra) with growing compliance footprints (social, chemical).
  

Auto components (castings, forgings, precision parts, wiring)

• Export momentum. India’s auto-component exports hit US$22.9B in FY2024–25 (≈+8% YoY), with North America as the single largest destination; the industry posted a trade surplus (~US$453M).
  
• Buyer behavior. Growth is tied to global OEM/Tier-1 vendor diversification—precisely the “China+1” behavior component buyers are executing.
  Takeaway: For machined, stamped, rubber-metal, and harness assemblies, India is already on major platforms; dual-sourcing here reduces China concentration without re-qualifying entire platforms.
  

Metal homewares & décor (brass, aluminum, steel)

• Cluster advantage. Moradabad (“Brass City”) accounts for ≈40% of India’s handicraft exports and has long export experience to the U.S., UK, EU, and Middle East.
  
• Tariff math vs. China (U.S. market). Many base-metal household/decor lines from China fall on Section 301 Lists (25% on Lists 1–3; 7.5% on List 4A), with additional 2024–25 increases in several categories. India-origin goods are not subject to these China-specific 301 surcharges.
  Takeaway: When you include 301 duties and ongoing compliance scrutiny, India often lands at cost parity or better on metal housewares/décor while de-risking.
  

Furniture (wood/metal/mixed)

• India’s furniture exports are still a small share of global trade, but shipments under HS 9403 alone were ~US$1.13B in 2023 and rising, with Jodhpur as a major solid-wood hub.
  Takeaway: Bulky wood/metal furniture and knock-down items see strong cluster economics (Jodhpur/Jaipur/Delhi-NCR); expect competitive landed costs on mid-market SKUs.
  

Packaging (paper, board, certain plastics)

• Domestic capacity is deep and growing; packaging paper/board consumption grew ~8.2% in 2023–24.
  Takeaway: For branded retail packs, corrugates, and premium rigid boxes, India can align with sustainability specs and reduce China exposure without cost shocks.
  

Cross-cutting reasons beyond cost

1. Tariffs & trade policy:
   
   • U.S. Section 301 adds 7.5–25% (and higher in targeted sectors like EVs, solar materials, gloves) only to China; many hikes were finalized in late-2024. Using India helps you avoid these China-specific surcharges for covered HS codes.
   • Preferential access into UAE (CEPA in force; up to 97% tariff lines duty-free over time) and Australia (ECTA; most trade duty-free/phased) improve landed costs for regional programs.
     
2. ESG & forced-labor compliance:
   
   • UFLPA has become a hard compliance gate for U.S. imports; apparel, cotton, and solar supply chains face intensified 2024–25 enforcement. India sourcing avoids Xinjiang linkages by design.
     
3. Concentration risk:
   
   • Many global buyers are engineering dual-source bills of materials (BOMs) specifically to reduce China single-country exposure; India has mature clusters to absorb that work in textiles, metals, leather, and components. (See export momentum in ACMA/EEPC data.)
     

What to move first (high confidence)

• Cotton knit tops & kidswear: traceable Indian cotton; Tiruppur’s knit ecosystem → quick samples, stable MOQs.
  
• Metal home décor/housewares: brass/aluminum/steel from Moradabad/Delhi-NCR; strong plating/finishing base; 301 duty advantage vs. China.
  
• Leather SBL/SLG & boots/sneakers: Chennai/Kanpur/Agra clusters; CLE-tracked export growth and broad material options.
  
• Auto components: castings/forgings/CNC/wiring; validated export scale and North America penetration.
  

What to plan next (needs vendor development)

• MMF/athleisure & technical textiles: capacity is scaling fast, but yarn/fabric locking and lab approvals add lead-time.
  
• Flat-pack furniture: competitive today in several lines; invest in fixture/tooling and packaging engineering for best landed cost.
  

How IndiaUnbox turns this into landed cost parity (or better)

• Tariff-aware costing: We price with MFN + any destination-specific surcharges (e.g., 301 on China) per HS code before vendor selection, so you see apples-to-apples landed costs.
  
• Cluster mapping: We place each product in its strongest Indian cluster (e.g., knitwear→Tiruppur; brassware→Moradabad; auto parts→Pune/Rajkot) and lock AQL plans with golden samples to protect specs.
  

FTA routing (where relevant): For Middle East & ANZ programs, we structure rules-of-origin and documentation to leverage CEPA/ECTA duty relief.